Swine Flu & Business: Impact & What You Can Do

Every time I hear the news I hear more about the swine flu epidemic that could be another over-hyped scare story or it could be a huge threat to both businesses and the population.

I am sure that it is making people more aware of coughs and sniffles and could be creating a tsunami of hypochondria.

Swine Flu Current Situation

At the time of writing, the number of people in the UK with swine flu is rising steadily although the 100,000 new cases per day mentioned by Heath Secretary Andy Burnham on July 2nd still looks a long way away although it is a staggering number to even contemplate.

The spread depends on the virus copulation rate and small changes in the rate can result in huge fluctuations in the forecasts because of the effect of compounding.

Swine flu is also said to have a similar mortality rate to normal flu - around the 0.5% (based on reported cases) or 1 in every 200 sufferers will die. Many of the current deaths have come from people with other health problems but there has been a case of swine flu causing death in a healthy person.

If Andy Burnham is right with the 100,000 victims and the mortality rate doesn't change, that would suggest up to 500 swine flu related deaths per day in Britain at the end of August/early September.

These are big scary numbers.

So How Does Swine Flu Affect Business?

We need to consider macro issues which impact on the national and world economy, local issues that impact on the local economy and micro issues which impact on the individual firms.

Macro Impact Of Swine Flu

Not good news.

The current economy is blighted by recession with unemployment expected to continue to rise until well into 2010. It was reported yesterday that a record 281,000 people lost their jobs in the three months ended May 2009.

The future economy carries the burden of the economic bailouts and huge recovery programmes and firm action is needed before the demographic time bomb of pensioners to young reaches crisis point.

Like a battered and outclassed boxer, things are wobbly and the knock out punch might not be far away.

Swine flu may be that heavy blow that turns the recovery into a W with a double dip or and L.

As people become more aware of the risks of the spread of swine flu, businesses where people gather will be under-pressure. The "safe" thing will be to stay at home.

Theatres, cinemas, hotels, restaurants, airports, conferences can all expect to see customers decide to spend their time elsewhere.

Even shopping will be under threat as a leisure activity since you are exposing yourself to more people who could be contagious.

Oxford Economics, an economic forecasting group, calculated in June 2009 that if the pandemic were to last six months, world GDP could be cut by £1.5 trillion - or 3.5% of GDP for 2009. The eurozone and the UK could lose 3% of GDP.

This is an extra 3% on top of whatever the recession and credit crunch was bringing.

And as sectors are affected, the pain of the economic cutback ripple back along the supply chains.

Local Impact Of Swine Flu On Business

I live in Birmingham which is one of the worst affected regions in the UK for swine flu.

While the spread is worldwide, I think it is inevitable that some countries and areas are going to be hotbeds for swine flu with particularly high infection rates.

Just as leisure activities will be under threat as people fear infection, public transport is also very vulnerable so areas that rely on it like London will be vulnerable.

Swine flu is another reason why I wouldn't want to be travelling on the Tube each day.

Schools have been closing to help contain the spread of infection and that puts pressure of local parents, especially those who are working.

Micro Impact of Swine Flu On Business

This is the impact of swine flu at an individual firm level.

 The effect of swine flu can be serious and you need to look at it across different levels:

1. You
    
   
2. Your employees
    
   
3. Your customers
    
   
4. Your suppliers

How Swine Flu Could Affect You The Business Owner

What happens if you get swine flu badly?

The risk of illness is always there but the swine flu pandemic says the risk is much higher although for most it is only going to be temporary.

So what happens to the business if you can't work for two weeks?

Do you have a contingency plan for the essential activities you do so that the business stays open?

How Swine Flu Could Affect Your Business Employees 

I suspect that the recession has already seen cutbacks to the bare bones for many firms.

1. Staff illness - one person ill is bad enough so you don't want people to bravely soldier on and infect your other staff and customers.
    
2. Family illness - swine flu is considered to be highly contagious and it is a killer. Employees will need time to care for their loved ones, and even if they are not showing symptom, they may already be infected and contagious.
    
   
3. Fakers - perhaps I am cynical but some people will tempt fate and use swine flu as a chance to "swing the lead" and get out of work. Even if it is not deliberate malingering, it is difficult to distinguish between the hypochondriacs who see every sneeze as the first indication of infection and those who have genuine cause for concern and who are acting responsibly.

Do you have a standby plan if key members of staff are away ill? Are there essential skills and knowledge which you must capture?

How are you going to protect your staff from infections?

Swine Flu And The Impact On Your Customers

What happens to your business if your customer base is badly affected by swine flu - or the fear of swine flu?

You may see orders and sales reduce and payments extend and if so, is your business healthy enough to survive?

You also have an obligation to reduce the risk of you or your employees infecting customers with swine flu.

Swine Flu And The Impact On Your Suppliers

Things could start getting unpredictable and your business can be stopped by a shortage of key inputs and services.

Can you identify where you are particularly vulnerable and compensate?

How To Protect Your Business From The Impact Of Swine Flu

There are more questions than answers, partly because don't know your business and partly because the entire swine flu situation is surrounded with uncertainty.

1 Keep Up To Date With The Swine Flu Symptoms & Recover Times

You need to be able to recognise the symptoms in yourself and in your staff and you need to make sure that you keep your staff informed.

Keep factual - I suspect that there will be a range of reactions from panic and hysteria to "what's swine flu?" Share what you know about the symptoms, infection risks and how to minimise spreading the virus.

You may even decide to turn customers away if they are showing visible symptoms. I understand that airlines won't accept sufferers because of the risk to customers and crew.

NHS Swine Flu Symptoms

Swine Flu Incubation and infection

2 Identify Critical Activities - Cross Train & Record Procedures

Some activities are much more important than others, so idea what must be done to keep your business working.

Then identify who is currently capable of doing those things well and adequately.

Do you have the cover you need or do you need to provide some emergency training or get the procedures written down quickly?

Yes every small business should have written procedures that explain how things are done but many business owners see it as busy work and even those who have tried to record the systems, may find that the records are well out of date.

It only needs a computer upgrade to make instructions like "take option 5 on menu B" nonsense and suddenly you can't invoice customers or run your payroll.

But focus on the critical activities first.

It's nice to have all the business processes recorded and staff extensively cross-trained but don't try to do everything.

Much better to cover the A "must have" activities and then the B "important to have activities" finally reaching the E "has to be done some time" activities.

3 Decide On Your Swine Flu Policies

Do you need a customer swine flu policy?

It might cover refunds for services you can't provide, that customers are enable to receive and how you treat people who appear to be ill.

Decide on your swine flu employment policy so that your staff are clear on what is expected. Already the testing facilities are struggling to cope so you may have problems if you try to distinguish between confirmed and suspected cases.

It is being reported that the UK self certification sick note policies could be extended from one week to two weeks to keep people out of Doctors' surgeries (two weeks without a doctors note).

4 Can Arrangements Be Made For Home Working?

One way to reduce the threat to the rest of the staff and customers is to increase the opportunity for home working but it will only be possible for some jobs.

But if someone is showing some symptoms of swine flu but still feeling well enough to work, home working lets them continue to contribute.

It also helps employees to avoid the risk of infection from travelling on public transport.

5 Write / Update Your Contingency Management Plan

It is better to be prepared and to have time to think about how your business will respond to the threat of swine flu that to have to respond quickly in a crisis.

Contingency plans can smack of big business and bureaucracy but something is better than nothing.

Identify your second and third in charge if you are taken ill, and if you work closely you may need to go further. Be clear who has the authority to make decisions and take actions.

Share your critical activity list so that your staff know what must be done and who is best to do it.

It is still very unclear how extensive the swine flu epidemic will be but virus theory shows that things can increase exponentially.

You need to do enough to protect your business without losing sight of the fact that swine flu is a risk and not a certainty.

6 Try To Conserve Cash

Things could be bad but they will be worse if your business hits a cash crisis.

Stop any extravagant and unnecessary purchases.

Try to speed up your cash collections from your customers.

If you have a buffer of cash, you have options and the power to choose.

Swine Flu & Business

Do you have any thoughts on how swine flu will affect business or advice on how businesses should respond.

I would welcome your comments - just look out for the crafty captcha check after you have typed in your comment.

More Details About Swine Flu

Wikipedia

UK Government Guidance

Center For Disease Control

Comments

[Paul Simister]

The issue of swine flu and its impact and effect on business is going to be a continuing news story.

This will inevitably have a British slant to it because that's the news I am subjected to each day.

Just one day after writing this blog on what a small business can do to protect itself from swine flu, the newspapers are full of the story that Chief medical Officer Sir Liam Donaldson has warned that a third of the population could catch swine flu and that 65,000 could die over the next two years.

The newspaper I am reading reports that the symptoms of swine flu include

a sudden fever
a temperature over 38 C or 100.4 F
a cough
headache
shivering
aching joints
stomach upset

Treatment is bed rest, plenty of fluids, paracetamol and if necessary the antiviral drug Tamiflu

To stop passing it on, wash your hands frequently and to keep away from other people.

The Guardian reports

"One firm monitoring the outbreak said that up to a third of the UK's workforce might have fallen sick by September. Oxford Economics, a forecasting organisation, warns that the pandemic could knock 5% off the country's gross domestic product."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jul/16/swine-flu-pandemic-warning-helpline

You can read more about the Oxford Economics predictions here

http://www.oef.com/free/pdfs/ukmswineflu(jul09).pdf

[Paul Simister]

Some useful links from Personnel Today

Swine flu: 10 things HR professionals and employers need to do now

http://www.personneltoday.com/articles/2009/05/01/50513/swine-flu-10-things-hr-professionals-and-employers-need-to-do-now.html

Swine flu - top tips for employers

http://www.personneltoday.com/articles/2009/07/09/51393/swine-flu-top-tips-for-employers.html

Swine-flu plans could save your business says CIPD

http://www.personneltoday.com/articles/2009/07/13/51415/swine-flu-plans-could-save-your-business-says-cipd.html

[Paul Simister]

Swine flu and business impact and effects updates

Swine flu & your business

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/business/business_advice/s/1126764_swine_flu_and_your_business

Warns about the duty of care employers owe their employees but doesn't go into much detail.

Swine flu could extend recession by two years

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jul/17/swine-flu-recession-thinktank

more scary stuff from Oxford Economics about how swine flu could dramatically change the business environment.

Comes with a warning that small businesses are going to be particularly badly hit.

SMEs should have a pandemic plan

http://www.nebsmarketingstore.ca/news/business-sense/smes_should_have_a_pandemic_plan_experts_say$319.html

Research shows that 87% of small businesses in Canada are not well prepared for swine flu - I expect similar results elsewhere.

Discounted online meetings and web conferencing

http://small-business-voip.tmcnet.com/topics/smb-voip/articles/60100-eblvdcom-offers-bail-out-options-small-business-owners.htm

eBLVD are offering businesses a 40% reduction to help transfer face to face meetings on line to reduce the transmission of swine flu.

[Paul Simister]

I mentioned above that businesses who bring people together should have a customer policy for swine flu and cited airlines as an example.

Here is an article from the Sunday Times explaining that both British Airways and Virgin are refusing to let people who appear to be suffering from swine flu on their planes

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/health/article6719172.ece

Passengers face the prospect of being quarantined overseas if they manage to get through departures - perhaps because the swine flu symptoms haven't appeared - but are suffering the other end.

So should your business consider the airline example and think about having a customer swine flu policy?

Would you want to sit in a cinema if someone was coughing and hacking away?

A clear public policy could be one way that you can help keep demand up because customers who fear infection just won't go.

Mind you, even with a customer swine flu policy they may not come.

[Paul Simister]

Google alerts on swine flu and the impact on business are increasing.

The Guardian asks if the economy will fail as people fall sick

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jul/12/swine-flu-economic-impact

and includes fears that the Internet could become overloaded as more employees work from home.

News on the BBC radio today that the Ernst & Young Item club was predicting that the UK economy could fall by 7.5% this year as the swine flu piles on the pressure on top of the recession and this has been picked up by the Wall St Journal.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124808006641564743.html

Commentators agree with my assessment that the economy is going to be squeezed from both the supply side (with workers unable to go to work) and the demand side (as people fear to congregate at certain businesses).

[Paul Simister]

A few more links for you to look at to help your business plan for swine flu problems and to reduce the impact.

Business community should plan for fall flu pandemic

http://www.canada.com/health/Plan+fall+pandemic+Report/1809721/story.html

Dealing With Swine Flu

http://www.tworkshb.com/dealing-with-swine-flu/comment-page-1/#comment-6489

Small To Medium Enterprises Face Little Sympathy With Swine Flu Absenteeism

http://www.freshbusinessthinking.com/news.php?CID=&NID=1682&Title=Small+To+Medium+Enterprises+Face+Little+Sympathy+With+Swine+Flu+Absenteeism

[Paul Simister]

Employers Swine Flu policy for employees

More interesting news and opinion

Swine Flu: Can You Be Forced To Go To Work?

http://www.confusedcredit.com/swine-flu-can-you-be-forced-to-go-to-work

some answers to some UK employment law questions about swine flu

Are You Breaking Swine Flu's Golden Rule?

The advice is to stay at home if you are feeling ill but what about employees who fear for their jobs (USA) because the business is making cutbacks in staff.

http://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=103853

Swine Flu Pandemic: Would Your Employees Take Advantage?

The suggested increase in the sick note rules in the UK from 7 days to 14 days is open to abuse by employees

http://www.gematech.com/blog/2009/07/15/how-can-you-stop-your-employees-taking-advantage-of-the-swine-flu-pandemic/

[Paul Simister]

Today's news on swine flu and business is mixed

Public relations story affected as JCB has the visit by Prince Andrew cancelled because of a few suspected cases.

Not sure what example this sets to the JCB workers in particular and the public in general.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/staffordshire/8162611.stm

The Daily Mail carries an alarming story - but it is said that bad news sells papers.

Swine flu victims could sue bosses for thousands if they catch virus at work

Useful tip to make sure that the employers liability insurance covers swine flu and you should be doing what you can to protect and educate employees on the risks.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1201371/Bosses-risk-lawsuits-staff-swine-flu-work-sick-day-rate-soars.html

Swine flu absence set to cost business £8.6 billion reports HR magazine

It says that employees infected with teh swine flu virus will take on average 4.3 days off work but pressure is growing to move the average up to 8 days.

http://www.hrmagazine.co.uk/channel/news/article/921998/Swine-flu-absence-set-cost-business-86-billion/

Finally a discussion of the ethical aspects of swine flu in

Business Ethics and H1N1 Swine Flu Disclosure for Employees

http://www.procprblog.com/business-ethics-and-h1n1-swine-flu-disclosure-for-employees

[Paul Simister]

Businesses threatened by the swine flu virus virus

No I haven't typed in virus twice by mistake.

It seems that some malicious b*****ds are using swine flu as an excuse to spread a computer virus

It poses in a document claiming to provide information about swine flu but is really the Novel H1N1 Flu Situation Update.exe

More details

http://www.webuser.co.uk/news/286541.html

Some people do have sick minds.

[Paul Simister]

Swine Flu & Business update 24 July

How hair dressing salons are combating swine flu - an example where there is close personal contact between clients and staff.

http://www.hji.co.uk/blogs/main/2009/07/what-are-salons-doing-to-comba.html

Swine flu conspiracy theory for pharmaceuticals to make money???

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/276359

Small firms need swine flu measures say FSB

http://www.morethanbusiness.com/Knowledge-Centre/Business-News/2009-07-23/Small-firms-need-swine-flu-measures,-says-FSB/1093

[Paul Simister]

Nick Jew, head of employment in the Birmingham (UK) office of law firm DLA Piper, offers a guide for employers on swine flu

The employers' guide to swine flu epidemic (from The Birmingham Post)

Lots of questions I hadn't thought of and wouldn't know the answer to as I know nothing about employment law compliance.

Very useful read for small businesses based in the UK who are battling with the swine flu issue.

http://www.birminghampost.net/2009/07/23/nick-jew-the-employers-guide-to-swine-flu-epidemic-65233-24219282/